It took more than five years between the launch by Airbus and the first revenue flight, completed on November 14 by Iberia, and now the A321XLR is a real thing.
The ultra-long-range variant of the narrow-body jetliner promises an unparalleled range of up to 4,700 nm (8,700 km), only possible for large and expensive widebodies.
Therefore, it is a successful aircraft, with around 500 orders in its backlog and that has no rivals. Doesn’t it?
For analyst Courtney Miller, CEO of Visual Approach Analytics, the A321XLR has a tough competitor, its “sibling” A321LR.
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Launched in 2014, the variant can fly 4,000 nm (7,400 km) with 206 passengers on board, thanks to three extra tanks installed in its fuselage.
This is a very good performance and makes the A321XLR an aircraft with very limited demand, since it is more expensive, heavier, and has some drawbacks, such as the small space for the galley, for example.
“The XLR’s problem is that the previous variants of the A321neo can do 85% of what the XLR can for cheaper”, said the consultant.
In other words, the A321XLR is an ideal aircraft for routes of more than 4,000 nm, but they represent a very small portion of the air network of most potential operators.
Demand for 500 aircraft
According to Visual Approach, about 0.2% of flights by an A321neo or a Boeing 757 (a narrowbody that had its moment in its favor on long-haul routes) are longer than 3,500 miles.
The market for the A321XLR is 500 aircraft, Miller estimates. Yes, that’s the current number of jets on order.
Despite this, the consultancy believes that the new Airbus aircraft could go further, taking advantage of the huge demand for the A321neo family.
Perhaps reaching around 900 to 1,000 aircraft, which would be the same as Boeing produced for the 757.
But the slowdown in new orders for the A321XLR could be a sign that the allure of the ultra-long-range jet has worn off.
The last known order was from Icelandair in 2023, and in the meantime JetBlue has postponed deliveries of its own and Frontier has converted its XLRs into other, cheaper versions.
Miller, however, sees some alternatives to increase demand for the A321XLR.
“The easiest way to increase the market for the XLR is to stop offering the LR. The second-easiest way is to discount the XLR to remove the economic advantage the LR offers on anything except the extra range worthy of the ‘X’ moniker,” he said.
