Global air passenger traffic returned to growth in July after three consecutive months of contraction, as the impact of geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East eased and several major domestic markets recovered, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Worldwide revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased 0.2% compared with July 2025, following declines during the previous three months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, traffic was up 0.3% year over year and increased 1.3% from June.
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Global passenger traffic reached 892 billion RPK during the month. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), increased 0.3%, its first expansion after four consecutive months of contraction.
With capacity growing slightly faster than demand, the global passenger load factor declined 0.1 percentage points to 85.2%.
The improvement was partly driven by a recovery in domestic markets. Domestic RPK increased 0.6% after falling 2.8% in June, while international traffic remained slightly below last year's level, declining 0.1%.
Excluding Middle Eastern airlines, however, global international traffic increased 1.5% in July.
Middle East remains main drag
Middle Eastern airlines continued to record the largest decline among regions, although conditions improved substantially from June. Total passenger traffic fell 10% year over year, compared with a 13.8% contraction a month earlier, as geopolitical disruptions partially eased.
Capacity among Middle Eastern carriers declined 6.2%, less than the reduction in demand, pushing load factor down 3.4 percentage points to 80.7%.
The effect was also visible in international traffic, which fell 9.5% for Middle Eastern airlines. Capacity decreased 5.8%, resulting in a 3.3-point reduction in international load factor to 80.9%.
North American carriers also remained in negative territory. Their overall traffic declined 1.2%, marking a third consecutive month of contraction, while international RPK fell 2.3%.
Domestic traffic in the United States decreased 0.5% year over year, the third consecutive monthly decline. US domestic capacity fell by a larger 1.4%, helping raise load factor by 0.8 percentage points to 86.7%, the highest among the major domestic markets tracked by IATA.
Latin America leads growth
Latin American and Caribbean airlines recorded the strongest overall traffic growth among regions in July, with demand increasing 6.1% and capacity rising 6.6%. Load factor declined 0.4 percentage points to 85.3%.
International performance was even stronger. RPK for Latin American and Caribbean carriers increased 7.1%, the fastest growth among all regions, while capacity expanded 7.2%. International load factor remained broadly stable at 85.7%.
Brazil stood out among the world's major domestic aviation markets. Domestic RPK increased 6%, the strongest growth recorded by IATA, although capacity expanded even faster at 8%. The difference reduced load factor by 1.5 percentage points to 84.1%.
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China was close behind, with domestic demand increasing 5.3% after declining in May and June. IATA said reductions in domestic fuel surcharges from early July may have supported the recovery. Chinese domestic capacity increased 4.7%.
India moved in the opposite direction. Domestic traffic fell 6.3%, the weakest performance among the major markets, while capacity declined 6%.
Asia Pacific carriers returned to overall growth after two months of contraction, with traffic increasing 1%. International demand, however, remained 0.7% below July 2025 levels.
European airlines recorded a 2.1% increase in overall passenger traffic, while international RPK rose 3.1%. Africa posted increases of 5.2% overall and 6.4% internationally.
Transatlantic traffic declines
Traffic between Europe and North America, the world's largest international route area serving the Americas, fell 2.2% compared with July 2025 after marginal growth during the previous two months.
IATA said several important European source markets contributed to the decline, including the United Kingdom, France and Spain.
North America-Central America traffic contracted 5.2%, while the Middle East-North America market declined 3.4%. Europe-Central America returned to growth with a 0.9% increase.
Europe-South America traffic continued to expand, rising 3.2%, although growth moderated from June. Asia-North America increased 2.7%.
Some of the strongest international growth occurred elsewhere. Europe-Asia traffic increased 12.1%, the fastest expansion among the major international corridors tracked by IATA. Traffic between North/South America and the Southwest Pacific increased 7.1%, while Southwest Pacific-Asia grew 4.3%.
More capacity expected through September
IATA expects the industry's capacity growth to accelerate during the remainder of the northern summer season.
Based on airline schedules available when the analysis was prepared, global scheduled seat capacity is expected to increase 1.9% year over year in August and 2.9% in September, compared with growth of 1.2% in July.
The Middle East is also expected to recover some of the capacity removed during recent disruptions. Scheduled seats are projected to decline 5.4% in August and 3.8% in September, an improvement from the 6.5% contraction recorded in July.
Asia Pacific capacity, which was flat in July, is forecast to increase 1.1% in August and 3.4% in September.
