Almost half of the new passenger aircraft required worldwide over the next two decades will replace existing jets, with Airbus forecasting a record replacement cycle after the global fleet aged during the post-Covid period.
The manufacturer's Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2026-2045 estimates demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft. Of these, 19,820 will replace older jets, while 22,240 will support fleet growth.
Replacement therefore accounts for 47% of projected deliveries, up from about 44% in Airbus' previous forecast. The 2025 GMF projected 18,930 replacements over 20 years.
The change becomes clearer over a slightly longer period. In the 2024-2043 forecast, Airbus expected 18,460 aircraft to be replaced, compared with 23,970 deliveries for growth. The latest forecast has increased the replacement requirement by 1,360 aircraft in two years.
Post-Covid fleet gets older
Airbus directly links the increase to what it describes as post-Covid fleet aging. Aircraft remained in service longer after the pandemic, when manufacturers struggled to restore production and airlines faced delays in receiving new jets.
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The result is now appearing in long-term fleet projections. Airbus expects 19,820 aircraft to leave the fleet and be replaced through 2045, compared with 18,460 in its forecast published only two years ago.
The manufacturer expects the share of latest-generation aircraft in the worldwide fleet to rise from about 39% in 2026 to nearly 100% by 2045.
The comparison between total delivery forecasts requires some caution. The 2024 and 2025 GMFs included passenger aircraft and freighters in their headline figures, while Airbus presents the 42,060 aircraft in its latest fleet forecast as passenger aircraft. The figures therefore do not indicate a direct decline from the approximately 43,400 deliveries projected in 2025.
More than 22,000 aircraft for growth
Despite the rising replacement requirement, expansion remains responsible for slightly more than half of future deliveries. Airbus expects 22,240 aircraft to be needed for growth over the next 20 years.
The global passenger fleet is projected to increase from 23,310 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 45,550 by the end of 2045. Passenger traffic is expected to grow by an average of 3.9% annually and more than double over the period, reaching about 10 billion passengers per year.
Single-aisle aircraft account for most of the projected demand, with 33,920 deliveries, or about 81% of the total. Airbus expects another 8,140 widebody aircraft to be required through 2045.
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The balance has changed considerably over a longer period. Airbus' 2019 forecast called for 39,210 new passenger and freighter aircraft, including 14,210 replacements. Replacement represented about 36% of deliveries at the time, compared with almost half of the passenger aircraft demand projected today.
The difference is even larger against the middle of the previous decade. In 2016, Airbus expected approximately 13,000 of more than 33,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft to replace existing jets over the following 20 years.
